Mon, 15 Jul 2024 18:44:11 GMT
Taylor Moser For my 2024 breakout quarterback, I'm going to go with Will Levis from the Tennessee Titans. After a disastrous fall in the draft to the second round, Will Levis ended up being picked up by the Tennessee Titans. Midway through the year, they made the switch to him and made him the quarterback of the future. This offseason, they spent a lot of time trying to build around him, but his work down the field last season is the reason why he could be the breakout candidate of 2024.
Will Levis took over as the starting quarterback in Week 8 and worked all the way through Week 16 before suffering an injury. During that time, in fantasy, he was the QB16—not a ton to write home about, but his work down the field absolutely grabbed my attention. During that time frame, he attempted 47 passes of 20 or more yards down the field, the highest number among quarterbacks. He completed 19 of those passes, second most among quarterbacks, for 621 yards on those passes, also second most among quarterbacks. When you take a look at every single quarterback from Week 1 through Week 18, Will Levis finished second among quarterbacks with 22.1% of all of his throws being 20 or more yards down the field.
Now the question becomes: who’s he going to be throwing to that deep consistently? DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t really fit that role, but like I mentioned, Tennessee is building around Will Levis, and they went out and got him Calvin Ridley to be that deep threat on the outside. So let’s take a look at Calvin Ridley and see how he did when it came to targets 20 or more yards down the field. He had 32 of those targets last season, which was tied for fourth, and he caught 13 of them, which was tied for seventh among wide receivers. He picked up 388 receiving yards on targets 20 or more yards down the field, which was 14th among wide receivers as well.
And don’t forget, back in 2020 during Calvin Ridley’s breakout season, he was one of the best deep threats in all of football. In 2020, he was first in both targets and receptions on 20 or more yards down the field, and he had 475 yards on those targets, which was tied for second among wide receivers.
The biggest factor here is going to be Will Levis himself. Yeah, he can go deep, but can he be consistent? How is his accuracy looking? Can he get it done over the middle of the field? The Tennessee Titans are building around him—they have DeAndre Hopkins, they got Calvin Ridley on the outside, they still have Chig Okonkwo at tight end, and Tony Pollard was signed to pair with Taji Spears in the backfield. Everything is set up perfectly. What’s the offensive line going to look like? Yeah, there are some questions, but I think Will Levis is going to have some absolute huge games.
To me, Will Levis may be a good late-round pick in best ball, but if you find yourself in a superflex or two QB league, he definitely could be worth a risk later in your draft.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 18:41:02 GMT
Taylor Moser UPDATE Unfortunately, Kendre Miller has been dealing with a hamstring injury since the beginning of training camp. So far, he has missed multiple weeks and even Week 1 of the pre-season. At this point, the chances of Miller seeing a breakout season, or maybe even making the team, seem slim. I would recommend skipping on Miller in your drafts for now, and maybe he will become an in-season waiver wire pickup.
Even after suffering a meniscus tear in the college football playoffs, the New Orleans Saints decided to use a third-round pick on Kendre Miller last season. He had to be eased into things; he didn't really get that big of a workload, and we didn't see that much of an impact from him until the final game of the season. But there were some glimpses, some things that we did see on a very limited number of touches that could lead to a bigger role in 2024.
In week 18 against Atlanta last season, the Saints decided to give Kendre Miller a larger workload, and he ran for 73 yards on 13 carries and scored a touchdown as well. But there were a couple of efficiency numbers that I did find interesting in the very few carries that he had last season. When you take a look at the running backs that had 40 or more carries, Kendre Miller ranked 14th in avoided tackles per attempt and he ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. And then when you take a look at the running backs that had 10 or more targets last season, Kendre Miller ranks sixth in receiving yards after the catch. There are some things that he can do that are explosive after you get the ball in his hands.
But even though we have a small sample size from Kendre Miller last season, those numbers aren't what I'm interested in when it comes to him seeing an increase in his potential this year. It relies on the numbers from the other veteran running backs on the roster. Alvin Kamara is going to be 29 this season, and his production has been slowly declining on an efficiency basis the last several years. Jamal Williams was absolutely awful last season. The guy that they signed, who dominated the red zone in Detroit, is not the same guy that they have now.
I'm going to read a few numbers to you, and it's a lot of numbers, so I'm going to look off-camera while I do that, so I apologize. But when you take a look from 2019 to 2023, Alvin Kamara's stats have slowly been declining when you take a look at them on an efficiency basis. For instance, yards after contact per attempt back in 2019, he was averaging 3.18 yards after contact per attempt. It has slowly dropped every season since then, going to 2.97, 2.80, 2.72, and then 2.51 this past year in 2023. The same thing can be said for avoided tackles per attempt. Back in 2019, he averaged 0.25 avoided tackles per attempt. Since then, it has dropped to 0.21, 0.19, 0.15, and all the way down to 0.12 this past season in 2023.
His explosiveness has also been on the decline. When you take a look at the amount of yards that came on runs of 15 or more yards, that percentage has slowly gone down. Back in 2019, 28.5% of his total rushing yards came on runs that were 15 or more yards. Now, in 2020, it actually did go up a little bit; it jumped up to 32.4. It has plummeted since then, down to 14.5, down to 13.4, and then a little bit of an improvement up to 13.7 in 2023.
Alvin Kamara is not getting younger, and he clearly is losing a step in his game as well, which is to be expected. He has had a lot of touches since he's entered the league; he's been very, very good, but it may be time to limit his touches moving forward and find a guy that can complement him very well on the ground, and that would be Kendre Miller. If we can get Kendre Miller a few more touches this season and get him into that supplementary role where we see 200 carries, we could be looking at a guy that becomes a weekly flex option in this offense.
I definitely would not stop paying attention to Kendre Miller. Keep him on your radar, and especially if anything were to happen to Alvin Kamara where he potentially misses time, Kendre Miller could find himself in a spot where he's giving you even a little bit more than flex upside.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 18:37:15 GMT
Taylor Moser I'm not trying to be a homer with this pick, and if you watched our live NFL draft stream, then you would have seen the doc, Ethan Turner, and I going back and forth about Jameson Williams a little bit. But I truly do believe that we are in for a much better season from Jameson Williams than what we've seen from him so far.
I think it's really important to note that Jameson Williams hasn't had the easiest start to his career so far, and sometimes we have to take into consideration exactly what has happened and how that may have stopped his progression. To start things off, in his rookie year, he was still recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered during the college football championship game in January of that season. Then he was drafted by the Lions just a couple of months later in April. He wasn't even able to play until week 13, and even at that point, he was still seeing a limited snap count. They were going to work Jameson Williams in very slowly. They not only drafted him in the first round, but they moved up to do so. They wanted to protect their investment.
Unfortunately, in year two, he suffered a 4-game suspension that was actually supposed to be six for a gambling-related issue. Honestly, I don't even know how much of the story I believe. Apparently, he was in a team hotel room, and he was betting on sports other than football, which you're allowed to do, but you can't do it on team property even though it was a team hotel. It was a big mess, and probably honestly, he didn't even deserve a suspension. But neither here nor there, he got it, he dealt with it, and it was over.
After a four-game suspension, he then tried to work his way back in, but Josh Reynolds was still the number two wide receiver at that point. We would see Jameson Williams from time to time, but he wasn't really able to steal that role away from Josh Reynolds, partly because Reynolds and Goff had such a good connection with each other. We started to see the tides turn a little bit towards the end of the season last year. Over the course of his final three games of 2023, Jameson Williams was utilized a little bit more often. During those three games, he had 11 receptions on 16 targets for 159 receiving yards. Yeah, nothing crazy, not anything that you look at and say sign me up for, but at least it was a step in the right direction.
Then in the NFC Championship, the dude absolutely showed why he could be a huge playmaker at the NFL level. In the NFC championship game, he had 67 total yards on only three touches and scored two touchdowns. One of those touches was a 42-yard touchdown rush on an end-around play where he reached 18.4 miles per hour in the middle of that run. Jameson Williams can fly.
Now, the Lions have 118 vacated targets from 2023 that will be up for grabs this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the number one target on this team, there's no denying that. Number two will be Sam LaPorta; absolutely, he's probably the second most valuable target on this team. But the number three target is going to be up for grabs. Could it end up being Jahmyr Gibbs? Absolutely. But Jameson Williams is going to have a much larger impact this season, and maybe he doesn't turn into a high-volume receiver. Jameson Williams could end up being one of those guys that maybe only sees 90 targets in a season, but if he catches 60-70 of those targets and turns those into a lot of big plays, we're going to see Jameson Williams score quite a few touchdowns. In fact, he could end up reaching seven or eight touchdowns this year on those big plays alone.
Just think about how the Lions' offense is constructed. Everybody knows the Lions are going to run the football, and they're going to run it well. You have to pay attention to David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield, not only on the ground but through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs is a huge playmaker out of the backfield when it comes to the passing game, and David Montgomery, even though he doesn't get a whole lot of work in the passing game, does a lot with it when they utilize it. Then you have two guys that are fabulous over the middle of the field and on the outside: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta absolutely decimate the intermediate portion of the field, which leaves Jameson Williams alone in one-on-one coverage on the outside. Very rarely are defenses going to commit a safety over the top to Jameson Williams because the safety is going to have to help Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They're not going to be able to let those guys get loose too often.
So once again, Jameson Williams may not see a ton of targets, but he's going to do some big things with the targets that he does see. Jameson Williams may be more of a best-ball bet and you draft him late and you utilize him in your lineup, and the dude can end up going off and help you win some weeks. When you take a look at just typical redraft leagues, it could be a little bit more difficult, and he's more of a wide receiver four on your team. But in the bye weeks or really good matchups for Detroit, considering the fact they're going to be indoors every single game but three of them this year, Jameson Williams could definitely be a guy that you rotate in and out of your lineup and reap the rewards later on.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 18:30:39 GMT
Taylor Moser My bust at the running back position for 2024 is going to be Rachaad White. He was definitely a guy last year that I was not on, and for the most part, he ended up proving me wrong. But the premise behind why I didn't like him last year was actually spot on. It was just some other things that ended up happening that propped his fantasy value way up.
It's the fact that David Canales, their offensive coordinator last year, gave Rachaad White so many touches. He ended up tying Christian McCaffrey for the most touches in the league. But now, David Canales is gone, and you have to wonder whether or not Rachaad White is going to get all of those touches once again, especially since Bucky Irving is now on the team, who Tampa Bay just drafted.
Typically, in a situation where I feel like a guy is going to be losing some touches, I want to look towards his efficiency. If he's really, really efficient, then hey, losing a few touches may not be that bad. But Rachaad White, unfortunately, isn't great in that area. During the first two years of his career, Rachaad White has been one of the worst running backs in all of football when it comes to his efficiency.
In yards per attempt, he finished 48th among running backs in 2022 and 45th among running backs in 2023. For yards after contact per attempt, he finished 51st in 2022 and 45th in 2023. And then for avoided tackles per attempt, he finished 45th in 2022 and jumped up to 38th in 2023.
So I decided to dissect his games just a little bit more to try and figure out why he was so inefficient but still was one of the top 12 running backs in the league and consistently finding his way into the top 12 on a weekly basis. And it really had everything to do with touchdowns. Last season, Rachaad White had eight RB1 games. In all but one of those eight games, Rachaad White was able to find the end zone. In those eight games, he ran for 550 yards on 152 attempts, good for 3.61 yards per attempt.
In order to consistently be an RB1, you have to average right around 12 to 15 fantasy points per game. And because Rachaad White is not nearly efficient enough to get to that based on his yards alone, he's got to either A) keep up all of that volume from last season or B) score just as many, if not more, than the nine touchdowns he had last year.
Because then you take a look at his five RB2 games. In his five RB2 games, he only scored a touchdown one of those times. Now his yards per attempt were actually a little bit better in his RB2 games but maybe a little bit misguided because in those five games, he ran for 295 rushing yards on 71 attempts, averaging 4.15 yards per attempt. But he had rushing yards on 15 carries in week 12 against Indianapolis. If you take that game out, he only averaged 3.48 yards per carry in his RB2 games.
So once again, those numbers just go to show you it was the touchdowns. His nine touchdowns are what propelled him up to being an RB1. He was never able to make his way into the RB1 conversation based on volume alone, and that will be something that's tough to do for a majority of running backs. I'm not saying every running back out there is becoming an RB1 based on volume alone, but a lot of your top running backs are having some RB1 games where they just don't end up finding the end zone.
Realistically, you need to be rushing close to or for over 100 yards and add a couple of catches with it to find yourself in 12 to 15 half PPR point territory to be an RB1. Rachaad White was never able to do that. Even with all of the volume he was getting, he was so inefficient he was having trouble reaching that plateau based on his volume alone. And if he loses some of that volume in 2024 because Tampa Bay decides to go with Bucky Irving a little bit more often, he's going to find himself in a lot of trouble. So he's going to have to make up for it by A) scoring nine or more touchdowns again this season or B) figuring out his efficiency and getting way higher than in the 30s and 40s for a majority of his rankings.
Because of all that, I'm just not going with it this season. Rachaad White's going to be a bust for me, and if you draft him to be an RB1, unfortunately, I think you're going to be disappointed.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 18:26:11 GMT
Taylor Moser My 2024 bust at the quarterback position is going to be Josh Allen this season. After being the QB1 in three of the last four years, I think his reign at the top has finally come to an end. There are a couple different reasons why I just can't buy into Josh Allen this season, and I think the fact that losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is not being talked about nearly enough in the fantasy community.
Interesting fact: Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen never missed a game together since Stefon Diggs was traded to Buffalo back in 2020. Before Stefon Diggs got to Buffalo, Josh Allen was really struggling to reach his ceiling. In the 28 games that Josh Allen played before the Stefon Diggs trade, he only completed 15 of 27 passes per game for a 55% completion percentage. He was also only averaging 184 pass yards while throwing for 1.07 touchdowns per game and 0.75 interceptions per game. But since the trade, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have played 66 games together. On average per game, Josh Allen completed 23 of 35 passes for a 65% completion percentage—a 10-point jump. His average pass yards went from 184 per game all the way up to 264 per game. He also saw a one touchdown per game increase, from only 1.07 before Stefon Diggs to 2.07 afterwards, and his interceptions per game actually jumped up to 0.87.
Over the last four years, Josh Allen has had a veteran wide receiver presence around him. Of course, Stefon Diggs, but he also had guys like Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Josh Allen had some younger guys join him as well—Gabe Davis, who could be that primary field stretcher, Dawson Knox, and Dalton Kincaid last year. But now, his top three wide receivers look way different. We've got rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir, who has been on the team for a couple of years now but really hasn't had that large of a role. And again, we're bringing back Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. The weapons that Josh Allen has had around him are changing greatly. Some of that veteran presence that he connected with from day one is now gone.
Based on current ADP trends, Josh Allen figures to be the number one quarterback drafted this season in fantasy football. But I'm willing to bypass that capital and take a quarterback after him. If you're really that focused on taking a quarterback early in your draft, you could pass on Josh Allen and grab a guy like Lamar Jackson. They've beefed up the run game this year, those wide receivers are another year older, and he's coming off of an MVP season. What about Patrick Mahomes? He's got a couple of field stretchers on that team again now and absolutely could see some numbers like we saw a couple of years ago. You've even got Jalen Hurts. If you're that interested in rushing upside, why are we not drafting Jalen Hurts with better weapons over Josh Allen?
I'm just not buying into Josh Allen this year. I think we underestimate how important Stefon Diggs was to the growth of Josh Allen and how inconsistent he could become if he doesn't feel comfortable with the weapons around him now. I'm going to go ahead and pass on him at his current ADP, and I'll take a shot at several guys afterward if I really want a quarterback this early.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 16:21:19 GMT
Taylor Moser So depending on how long you've been a subscriber here, you know that I've always loved Jonnu Smith. For a few years there, I really thought there was a lot of breakout potential and it just never came to be. I had given up on Jonnu Smith and moved on, and then all of a sudden, last year in Atlanta, he had some TE1 performances, and some of his efficiency stats were actually pretty insane. Now he's landed with the Miami Dolphins. Sign me up again for some Jonnu Smith love.
Last season, when you take a look at the tight ends who had 60 or more targets, Jonnu Smith was absolutely dominant when it came to the efficiency standpoint. His 76.2% catch percentage was eighth among tight ends with 60 or more targets. He was third in yards per target, fourth in yards per reception, and second in yards after the catch per reception. His 2.38 fantasy points per touch ranked 10th among those tight ends as well.
Now, we all know the Miami Dolphins have their top two targets in Tyreek Hill, who had 171 targets last season, and Jaylen Waddle, who had 104 targets in only 14 games. They did sign Odell Beckham Jr., so it's going to be interesting to see how he plays in that offense. But really, after those two guys, a lot is up for grabs. Durham Smythe was third on the Dolphins last year with 43 targets, and then guys like Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Braxton Berrios were right behind him. There was never a true third option in this offense, and that's why sometimes I feel like the Dolphins stalled. They had their two main guys, but if either of those guys got shut down, it became way more difficult for Tua.
This year, they've given Tua a lot more options and the ability to spread the ball around a little bit more. I don't think it's going to hurt Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, but definitely from an efficiency standpoint, if you even get Jonnu Smith around 70 targets this year, it could make him a fantasy-viable tight end. I'm not going to say he's a top-six tight end consistently, but he's definitely going to have some weeks inside the top 12. For those of you in deeper leagues or best ball leagues, having him stashed on your bench wouldn't be the worst thing in the world as a second tight end option in case your number one option has a bad matchup, has a bad week, or deals with any injuries.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 16:17:29 GMT
Taylor Moser If you've never heard of Tyrone Tracy Jr., I'm not shocked. There wasn't a whole lot to talk about when it came to his college career. He was an okay wide receiver at Iowa, which is in an offense not really known for its passing attack anyway. He knew at that time he was not going to make his dream of making it to the NFL level if he didn't make a change. So, he transferred to Purdue and became a running back instead.
Now, his first year at Purdue didn't do a whole lot, but last season he ended up becoming the starting running back and ran for 749 yards on 113 attempts, good for 6.3 yards per attempt. He added eight rushing touchdowns to go with it. When you take a look at the depth chart in New York right now, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is really the only one that offers the impact on the ground and in the passing game.
A couple of years back, there was a guy out of NC State that was applauded for his ability to make plays in the passing game as a running back because he used to be a former wide receiver. His name is Nyheim Hines. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is a bigger, stronger version of Nyheim Hines. Tracy understands the playbook when it comes to what he's doing in the passing game, his route trees, how he executes that, and his ability to be more explosive on the ground than what Devin Singletary may be. This is going to offer him the opportunity to see more and more touches as the season goes on. In OTAs, Tyrone Tracy Jr. was already getting reps with the first-team offense. It's clear that the New York Giants see him as a potential fit in this offense.
Now, here's another name that you probably don't recognize: Joel Thomas. Thomas is currently the running back coach for the New York Giants. Oddly enough, Joel Thomas was the running back coach for the New Orleans Saints the year they drafted Alvin Kamara, another guy that didn't have the most illustrious college career. Now, obviously, Kamara's was much better than what we saw from Tyrone Tracy, but Kamara was a guy that wasn't even getting first-string touches at Tennessee for a majority of his career. Remember Jalen Hurd, the running back turned wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers? He was actually the starter over Alvin Kamara during his time at Tennessee.
Anyway, Alvin Kamara came into the New Orleans Saints with a pedigree that they thought they could mold into an all-around back that could make an impact in the passing game and on the ground. That same running back coach is now helping Tyrone Tracy potentially follow the same exact steps. Am I saying Tyrone Tracy is going to be an RB1 this season? Absolutely not. But Devin Singletary, last season, for as much volume as he got, was not very efficient, and that was with a better team. The New York Giants might find themselves playing from behind more times than not. They don't really have a ton of established pass catchers right now. Tyrone Tracy has the ability to find targets and attempts on the ground right away.
There aren't a whole lot of times you see me get super excited about a running back that was drafted as late as what Tyrone Tracy Jr. was, but this year I am absolutely in love with Tyrone Tracy Jr. and I think he could end up being one of the steals of fantasy drafts all year long.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 16:15:26 GMT
Taylor Moser While everybody's talking about Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, or some of the big-name rookie wide receivers this year, Roman Wilson is just cruising by and he's ready to go. For the Steelers this year, he could end up becoming one of the most important weapons in that offense. Essentially, Roman Wilson is going to be taking over the Diontae Johnson role in this offense—the guy that really eats up those targets in the intermediate portion of the field while George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth work down the field and to the sidelines, and then of course the run game.
But just take a second to think about the amount of targets that Diontae Johnson has had over the last few years. Now, last season he wasn't among the league leaders—in 11 games he saw 77 targets—but in the previous seasons before that he was always at the top. He was sixth in targets in 2022, he was fifth in targets in 2021, and he was sixth in targets in 2020, his breakout season.
When you take a look at the offensive structure for the Steelers this year with Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator now, I think we're going to see something more similar to what he ran in Atlanta than what we saw in Tennessee. A lot of people look back to what Arthur Smith did in Tennessee and they're like, "Man, that offense was humming—Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown." But the Steelers don't have Derrick Henry, and the Steelers don't have A.J. Brown. They have good players, but those guys were absolute beasts at their position. George Pickens is not A.J. Brown. He could be good, but he's not going to be A.J. Brown. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren—they could be good, but they're not going to be Derrick Henry.
So over the last couple of years, when you take a look at the way the offense ran for the Falcons, they really utilized the short and intermediate portions of the field. There's so much information here—I have it all written down again, so let me go through it with you. Last season, Desmond Ridder, when he was the quarterback, had 70 attempts from 0 to 9 yards past the line of scrimmage, 87 from 10 to 19 yards, and 47 of 20-plus yards. Taylor Heinicke was also a guy that played quarterback a little bit last year as well. Same thing—52 of his attempts were 0 to 9 yards past the line of scrimmage, 31 from 10 to 19, and 15 of 20 or more yards down the field.
Last season, they really utilized again 0 to 9 yards and then 10 to 19 yards. In 2022, it was a lot of the same thing. Marcus Mariota had 114 attempts from 0 to 9 yards past the line of scrimmage, 79 attempts from 10 to 19, and 48 attempts of 20-plus yards. Then Desmond Ridder, as a rookie, saw some plays as well—46 attempts from 0 to 9 yards past the line of scrimmage, 30 attempts from 10 to 19, and only 10 attempts of 20 or more yards down the field.
This could absolutely be an offense that does the same exact thing in 2024, and if they do, Roman Wilson is going to be a really big part of it. This is where he excels. He does such a good job of getting in and out of his routes and accelerating away from defenders that he's going to find himself open over the middle of the field quite a bit. If Russell Wilson is continuously looking for him, he's going to pepper him with targets over the middle of the field. Roman Wilson could end up being a guy that in PPR leagues, by the end of the season, is a flex option that we need to be thinking about on a weekly basis. In half-PPR leagues, he may need a little bit more volume and some touchdowns to get to a startable player every single week, but he absolutely could fill in for injuries and bye weeks.
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 16:13:31 GMT
Taylor Moser I think Russell Wilson took too much heat last season for the Denver Broncos. I think he ended up being the fall guy for a head coach that just didn't have the type of outcome in the season that he wanted, and unfortunately, that led to a split after Denver traded away a haul to get Russell Wilson just a couple of years ago. But now Russell Wilson finds himself in Pittsburgh, and he could also find himself as one of the underrated sleepers at the quarterback position in 2024.
Because prior to being benched last season, Russell Wilson was actually pretty darn good. From weeks 1 through 16, he ranked highly in a lot of the quarterback categories. Now, he wasn't throwing for a ton of yards. His 3,045 yards through week 16 last season was only 18th among quarterbacks, but that wasn't all his fault. The touchdowns were there—26 touchdowns through week 16 last season tied for sixth most among quarterbacks. Also, his adjusted completion percentage was 78.8%. This takes into account drops from wide receivers, and that was the fourth best among quarterbacks.
He was also the QB9 in fantasy football entering week 17 when he was benched, and his fantasy points per dropback ranked eighth among quarterbacks. All in all, through the first 16 weeks of the season last year, Russell Wilson had eight QB1 performances.
Now, I'm not going to bang the drum for Russell Wilson to be a QB1 in fantasy football in 2024. However, I think he could end up being a very good value. There's always going to be the issue of him potentially losing his job if Russell Wilson gets off to a slow start or is making too many mistakes. They could turn to Justin Fields, and I also think Justin Fields is going to have some specific packages. Fields is going to come on, and Russell Wilson is going to come off the field at times. That obviously could limit some of his upside.
But for those of you that play in two-quarterback or superflex leagues, I do think Russell Wilson could be a really great value later on. Or for those of you that play in deeper leagues or like 16-team leagues where you do carry a backup quarterback just to ensure that you don't get screwed over in case of an injury or a bye week, Russell Wilson could be one of those deeper bench guys that you keep around. And if he ends up being the starting quarterback for the Steelers all year long, I definitely could see him right outside the top 12.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 18:08:07 GMT
Taylor Moser There's a lot of people that truly believe that it's Zamir White breakout season, and I just cannot get on board with you. So for Zamir White, at the end of 2024 when Josh Jacobs was hurt, he was the starter over the last four weeks of the season. And when I say he did absolutely nothing up until that point, I promise you he did absolutely nothing.
For weeks one through 14 last season, Zamir White was the RB95 on the season. You want to know a few guys that outscored him? Nick Chubb, who only played in two games, J.K. Dobbins, who only played in one game, and even Darrell Henderson, who was a free agent for the first six weeks of the season. That's how bad Zamir White was. That's how little work he got. That is how useless he was in this Raiders offense.
Then, in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18, he had double-digit carries in every single week, and he finished as the RB12, the RB15, the RB20, and the RB17. One fringe RB1 week and three RB2 weeks. So I get why people would be interested in Zamir White this season and to potentially pick him up to be one of their starting running backs. But even when you take a look at it, it was all volume-based. Zamir White averaged over 20 carries per game during that four-week stretch, which was tied for first with Najee Harris.
So you would think during that time we would have seen Zamir White absolutely pick up some of the efficiency stats that we like to talk about, but that wasn't the case. He only had 11 avoided tackles during that four-game stretch, good enough to tie for 17th among running backs during that time, and was only one more than Chuba Hubbard. So I can't stress this enough: Zamir White was 120% volume dependent last season, and we didn't see anything in the efficiency area to predict any type of a major breakout coming.
Do you want him to be your RB1? Absolutely not, stupid idea. Do you want him to be your RB2? Absolutely not. Not nearly as bad of an idea as him being your RB1, but still a bad one. Do you want him to be a flex player for you? That's fine, and depending on where his redraft ADP ends up falling, if you get him as your RB3, okay, you possibly could end up having worse options than that. I'll be on board with that. But he's not going to have a whole lot of upside, and he may not even keep the job from Alexander Mattison all season long.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 18:05:52 GMT
Taylor Moser Last season, Jonathan Taylor missed the first four games of the season and then he saw a reduced workload the next two games as he built himself back up to game speed. During the first six weeks of the season, Zack Moss was the RB6 on the year. People who had decided to grab him off the waiver wire or drafted him once they found out Jonathan Taylor was going to miss time were definitely rewarded with some great fantasy performances.
Then, Jonathan Taylor was the full-time starter again. Zack Moss basically went to the background, and it wasn't until an injury in week 12 that Zack Moss found himself as the potential starter for weeks 13, 14, and 15. This was great for fantasy owners—they were getting him back at a time when he absolutely could help them into and in the fantasy playoffs. But during those three weeks, Moss was only able to finish as the RB26, RB36, and RB19—one top-24 performance.
When the Cincinnati Bengals decided to move on from Joe Mixon, they signed Zack Moss in his place. But I wouldn't necessarily say that Zack Moss is definitely the starter because the contract they signed him to could end up being just a one-year deal. Yeah, technically it's a two-year deal, but after the first year of the contract, the Cincinnati Bengals can opt out for only 1.5 million in dead cap space. Whereas if they keep him on contract for the second year, they're going to have 4.25 million working against them in the cap. So there's no real financial tie in making Zack Moss the primary running back all season long.
Chase Brown could end up being a guy that steals enough time from Zack Moss to start taking over as the lead back. So here's what I see to begin 2024: Zack Moss will be the primary back and he's going to get a majority of the workload in the red zone. It would not shock me if he becomes a frustrating fantasy player at the beginning of the season because maybe he's not getting a ton of volume but he's scoring touchdowns every once in a while. Because of that, it's enough just to make him viable for our lineup but not really enough to make him a worthy weekly start.
But unless Zack Moss is able to do more with less at the beginning of the season and show that he is definitely by far the better running back than Chase Brown, Chase Brown will start to eat into those touches. Chase Brown will primarily see the work in the passing game. If he's making an impact there and Zack Moss isn't really doing a whole lot on the ground with his volume, Chase Brown could force his way into more touches that way as well.
Zack Moss right now, for me, yes, should be the draft pick over Chase Brown because I do believe Zack Moss is going to end up getting first shot. But I'm going to tell you right now, if you draft Zack Moss and you have deeper benches, I would highly encourage you to also take Chase Brown. For me personally, I don't know where I'm willing to draft Zack Moss, but it certainly isn't very high.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 18:03:21 GMT
Taylor Moser The writing was on the wall in week 18. Derrick Henry said goodbye to the Tennessee crowd, and it seemed like he was off to a new team in free agency, meaning Tyjae Spears would end up being the starting running back in Tennessee. Considering he scored two touchdowns in week 18 and was the RB9, fantasy owners definitely got geared up for what Spears could end up doing in 2024.
Enter Tony Pollard. Tyjae Spears' role last season was really limited to the passing game. He only had one week where he had double-digit carries, and in the passing game, he would make an impact here and there, but nothing was ever very consistent. In 2024, it's going to be interesting to see exactly what Tyjae Spears' role is with the Tennessee Titans, considering the fact that Tony Pollard is likely the RB1.
When Tyjae Spears was drafted, concerns over his knee became public. He has no ACL in his knee, and he's definitely got some bone-on-bone issues. Doctors really felt like he had a career length in the NFL of a few years and nothing longer than that. So clearly, Tennessee is investing in Tony Pollard to ensure that he and Tyjae Spears can work together as long as possible. That's probably another reason why Tyjae Spears doesn't take over as the starter anytime soon. In 2024, he's probably limited to a passing game role once again.
As concerned as I am about Tony Pollard's value in 2024, I'm even more concerned about Tyjae Spears. From an efficiency standpoint, he was definitely way better last season than what Tony Pollard was. If he keeps that up in 2024 and Tony Pollard just can't get back to the efficiency we saw when he was younger, there's going to be an opportunity for Spears to take more and more touches.
I think Tyjae Spears ends up being a guy that goes on and off the waiver wire for a majority of the year. People are going to draft him, he may not give you a lot of value early in the season, he gets dropped, he has some good games, he gets picked back up. I'm just saying a lot of inconsistencies could come with Tyjae Spears this season. If you're going to draft him, definitely make it late. He shouldn't be anything more than an RB5/flex option for your team and some depth that maybe you can utilize if there's injuries or other issues.
Anything higher than that, where you feel like you're going to have to rely on Tyjae Spears consistently on a weekly basis, that's where you could end up getting into trouble. I'm cautiously optimistic about this backfield, but there's just a whole lot of concerns I can't get over.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 18:00:57 GMT
Taylor Moser Ty Chandler was non-existent through the first nine weeks of the 2023 season. Then, from week 10 through the end of the year, he had a few fantasy viable performances. He was an RB1 one time, he was an RB2 two times, and he was an RB3 three times. So you found a few different maybe flex options in there to start Ty Chandler if you were dealing with issues at the running back position.
For a majority of the offseason, a lot of people felt like Ty Chandler was even going to be one of the big winners, thinking that Minnesota was not going to be investing in any type of running backs, especially in free agency. But then Green Bay decided to sign Josh Jacobs. They released Aaron Jones, and then Aaron Jones signed with the Minnesota Vikings. At that point, Ty Chandler saw a pretty big hit to his value.
But can he beat out Aaron Jones for some of those touches? It seems like Aaron Jones is set to be the starter in Minnesota, and we know that he does have a habit of missing some time due to injury. So Ty Chandler could find himself in a starter's role very soon. As far as his role with Aaron Jones, he's likely to be more of a third-down back. Last season, he did rank 14th in yards per route run among all running backs, so even though he wasn't doing a whole lot in terms of his volume in the passing game, he was making the most out of the small amount of chances he was getting.
Ty Chandler likely will make an impact in the passing game once again as Minnesota will try to keep Aaron Jones as healthy as possible and limit his touches to mostly on the ground.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:56:12 GMT
Taylor Moser After only getting six carries as a freshman with Oregon back in 2021, Trey Benson decided to transfer to Florida State and saw back-to-back seasons of 900 or more rushing yards as a sophomore and as a junior. Based on the numbers alone, Benson was never considered a high-end running back prospect in this past year's draft. It was his athletic testing that drew teams to potentially taking him. The back-to-back second-team All-ACC running back went to the NFL Combine and, per NFL.com, had the highest athletic testing of any running back involved.
The Arizona Cardinals clearly wanted to add youth and fresh legs to their running back room in this year's draft and decided to use their third-round pick on Trey Benson. Trey Benson won't likely be one of those all-around backs that you'll see impact both the run and the passing game. Very rarely was he used in the passing game at the college level. Now, he could still make a little bit of an impact there. This coming season in 2024, he most likely will be a backup to James Conner, but he is definitely a guy that, if James Conner were to miss any part of the season, Trey Benson could step in and steal that job away pretty easily.
So, while in 2024 we're not really drafting Trey Benson to be a guy to make an immediate impact on our fantasy roster, we are definitely drafting him as a backup to James Conner. Then we could potentially get some standalone value from him if Conner ends up hurt.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:53:54 GMT
Taylor Moser For a large majority of the season, Rico Dowdle was a guy that was an offseason winner. The Dallas Cowboys completely stayed away from the free agency pool; they didn't add anybody through the draft. And even to this day right now, a lot of people still consider him a winner because they brought in Ezekiel Elliott, who used to be in Dallas but may at this point be past his prime. As of right now, you have to figure that Dowdle will end up being the backup to Zeke. Dowdle last season, at times, was the backup to Tony Pollard.
So when you take a look at the fantasy numbers from last season, there's not really a whole lot to derive from those. Now, he did score a few touchdowns, and those were really the only games that gave him fantasy viable performances—two on the ground and two in the air. In all four of those games that he scored a touchdown, he saw a finish at RB26 or higher. If he didn't score a touchdown, though, he didn't give you any type of numbers that typically ended up being fantasy-relevant.
For me, Rico Dowdle isn't a guy that has a lot of underlying stats that hint towards any type of a breakout. It's really going to be about whether or not he beats out Zeke Elliott for the starting job, sees enough time splitting with Zeke Elliott, or if Ezekiel Elliott goes down. And because there are so many "what ifs" in that scenario right there, really, Dowdle is not a draft candidate for me.
Now, add him to your waiver watch list. Keep an eye on the news, and if we hear anything maybe in training camp about him taking the starting job, then maybe we try to pluck him up a little bit later. But really, Dowdle is going to suffice this season as being a fill-in if Zeke Elliott goes down. I really don't see a whole lot more than him being a waiver claim that ends up dropping when Zeke Elliott comes back.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:49:21 GMT
Taylor Moser Two RB3 performances, one RB2 performance, nine RB1 performances. The Kyren Williams breakout last season left fantasy owners absolutely scooping up fantasy titles across the board. And yeah, he missed a little bit of time in the middle of the season and was banged up for week 18, but Kyren Williams was fantastic when he was on the field last year. He was the perfect mixture of a running back that offers a nice floor because of the volume that they get and the upside because of the efficiency in which they work, which is really, really tough to find these days.
But Kyren Williams is also a true RB1. Sean McVay last season gave him the workload. If he was on the field, he was the guy getting 70-80% of the backfield touches. They wanted the ball in his hands. And yeah, they drafted Blake Corum this year, but realistically, I don't think that that's big of an issue. Maybe we see him drop down to 65-70% more consistently of the RB touches, but that's still plenty because of his efficiency to be a top 10 running back the majority of the time and hopefully keep him a little bit healthier.
We'll see how things play out this season, but I am not passing on Kyren Williams anywhere. The efficiency is just way too good that even if he does lose a substantial amount of touches to Blake Corum, at worst you're looking at a really, really safe RB2. Kyren Williams is a really great investment this year, and I am investing in him anywhere that I can.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:45:04 GMT
Taylor Moser Kendre Miller didn't make much of an impact last season, and by not much of an impact, I mean basically none whatsoever. Not all his fault, though. He did suffer a knee injury in the first half against Michigan in their Fiesta Bowl matchup and then, unfortunately, dealt with that knee injury throughout the entire offseason. New Orleans planned to work him in slowly; in weeks 3 through 9, he got a chance to get his feet wet and he got a chance to get a few carries and a few touches through the air, but nothing real significant. He only had one game that was basically a fantasy-viable performance.
Now, he didn't have the greatest underlying statistics either. Remember, this is a guy that really all offseason long dealt with a knee injury. But there were some things to potentially be excited about. When it comes to yards after contact per attempt and tackles avoided per attempt, at times Kendre Miller looked very, very efficient and very, very dynamic. And even though the surface numbers don't look great for Kendre Miller, it's what could be in 2024.
When you take a look at the running backs around him, they each saw declining performances last season: Jamaal Williams and Alvin Kamara both. If Kendre Miller is going to be healthy heading into the 2024 season, I highly anticipate him being the number two running back behind Alvin Kamara. And if Alvin Kamara doesn't start seeing an increase in his efficiency on the ground, Kendre Miller is going to start to take some of those touches away from him.
I wouldn't say Kendre Miller is a breakout candidate, but I absolutely would say he's a potential sleeper candidate this year. And if Alvin Kamara were to miss any time, Kendre Miller could find himself with some pretty decent RB2 stats.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:38:46 GMT
Taylor Moser I have a strong concern that there's going to be some recency bias with Chuba Hubbard. If you owned him last season towards the end of the year, he may have been a part of any type of a playoff run or getting you to a championship. But through the first 11 weeks of the season, he only offered you double-digit fantasy points one time. So are we going to get the first half of the season Chuba Hubbard in 2024, or are we going to get the second half of the season Chuba Hubbard? Is the second half of the season Chuba Hubbard really all that worth drafting?
From week 12 through week 18, Chuba Hubbard was at least an RB2 six times. Okay, decent floor. And of those six times, he was only inside the top 18 running backs twice. All right, so not a great ceiling. But somehow, even though those numbers aren't all that spectacular, from week 12 through week 18, Chuba Hubbard was the RB9 last season. So on a weekly basis, it looked like Chuba Hubbard was giving you an awful lot. But then, when you take a look at the numbers as a whole, maybe it wasn't that Chuba Hubbard was giving you a whole lot; maybe it was just the other running backs around him weren't doing nearly enough.
Now, really the only threat that I see to Chuba Hubbard this season is going to be Jonathan Brooks. But there's no telling when Jonathan Brooks is even going to be ready to play football after tearing his ACL last November. For me, Miles Sanders, as of this recording, is still with Carolina, but I would not be shocked if he is released at some point in training camp.
So, even though Chuba Hubbard gave you the RB9 numbers down the stretch last season as a whole, I'm not willing to bank on him being a top 12 running back once again. Now, this could end up being an improved offense. Bryce Young could take another step this year, and if those things were to happen, it absolutely will help Chuba Hubbard. And I also want to remind everybody that Dave Canales, who comes over from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, gave Rachaad White a ton of touches last season. But I don't think that he's going to be able to give all those touches to Chuba Hubbard and get the same type of fantasy production.
Really, it's all about where his ADP ends up landing come draft season. If you can take him as your RB4 and add him as depth on your team, I'm absolutely okay with that because if nothing ends up happening with him, you're not burning yourself. But if you have to draft him as your RB2 or even an RB3 that you're probably going to have to start on a weekly basis, I don't think I'm ready to give that type of draft capital to a guy that could end up losing his job this season.
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:35:47 GMT
Taylor Moser A big issue that I continue to see in fantasy football is when fantasy football owners use misinterpreted or misguided information in order to draw a conclusion and don't change that conclusion even when new information presents itself. I believe that Jerome Ford fell victim to that thought process last season. When Nick Chubb went down about halfway through their week two game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jerome Ford stepped up and offered back-to-back top 10 performances in week two and week three.
Fantasy owners had two pieces of information that they ran with after that: they saw top 10 performances in week two and week three and said, "Hey, Jerome Ford can do it." Then they took the performances that Nick Chubb had in the past, added those two things together, and felt like, "Hey, Jerome Ford is going to continue to do this every week." That just didn't end up happening. Because people had such an inflated thought about Jerome Ford at the beginning of the season, they continued to stand up on this hill where they thought Jerome Ford had top 10 potential. Instead, they didn't take the newer information presenting itself and realize that Jerome Ford was actually just a really safe RB2.
There is nothing wrong with being a safe RB2, but it is the difference between getting what you think you're going to get and getting what you know you're going to get out of a player. When we draft Jerome Ford this season, we should get what we know we're going to get. After those great performances in week two and week three, Jerome Ford was only a top 10 running back two more times the rest of the season. However, he finished as an RB2, ranked anywhere from RB13 to RB24, seven times the rest of the season. Then you sprinkle in a few performances where Jerome Ford was either an RB3 or wasn't really worthy of a fantasy start at all, and again you get a guy that is a safe RB2.
He is somebody that I think can give me decent numbers every single week, and that's how we should draft Jerome Ford in 2024. We don't know anything about Nick Chubb and what is exactly going to happen as of this recording, but Jerome Ford is going to be a guy that we should definitely be picking up given the fact that his ADP at this point is super, super low.
One thing we want to keep in mind as well is that Jerome Ford was largely propped up in the fantasy scoring department by his touchdowns last season. He had five through the air and another four on the ground for nine total scores. His yardage, though, was not all that great. He only broke 100 total yards on three different occasions.
So for me in 2024, without knowing what Nick Chubb is going to be doing to begin the season, I'll invest in Jerome Ford as a safe low-end RB2 and hope to begin the season that maybe he gives me a few more touches than what I was anticipating. If either Nick Chubb is not fully healthy or ready to go, or the fact that Nick Chubb ends up missing some time or just isn't fully integrated into the offense and just needs to slowly work his way back, then maybe you do lose a few touches throughout the season. But Jerome Ford is still there as a potential flex option because of what he could do in the pass game.
If you draft Jerome Ford, the best-case scenario is that Nick Chubb just ends up missing most of, if not all of, 2024. As a Nick Chubb truther, I would absolutely hate to see that, but I definitely think Jerome Ford, as long as his ADP doesn't get too high, if we can draft him as our RB4 or RB5, we invest at that point, and whatever ends up happening is just icing on the cake.